One recurring narrative I have seen flying around about the United States (US), President Donald Trump’s threat to take military action against Nigeria for not protecting Christians, is that Nigeria will become like Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan.

While there is a belief that Trump’s threat is connected to America’s desire to have control over Nigeria’s resources, which has seen China, America’s biggest economic rival, make some inroads, I think his motive is something else.

According to CNN, while on board Air Force One, he saw the Fox News report about the killing of Christians in Nigeria and was angry about it. You might think he is in solidarity with Christians, but Trump’s targeting something much greater.

He is popular among Christians in the US, or as they are better called, Evangelicals. He is also popular among Christians in Nigeria, who see him trying to restore conservative values that are against things like abortion, same sex marriage, promoting LGBT rights and other things considered a satanic agenda being pushed by the Democratic Party and other liberal-minded individuals.

This group of people are Trump’s core base of US supporters, and he needs to appeal to them at a time when his approval ratings are low at 40% per Reuters and 37% per CNN, all this while the American government is under a shutdown due to a budget stand-off between Republican and Democratic lawmakers in the US Congress.

These things are not good for Trump’s appeal among his followers; hence, he needs to portray himself as a strong, authoritative leader. He can only afford to make threats to invade a country that is not at par with the US politically, economically and militarily.

Imagine Trump making threats to invade Russia or China because certain groups of people in the country are being killed. While it is possible, it cannot be a direct invasion with his proposed “guns-a-blazing” approach, per his Truth Social post. He will rather look for more subtle ways to achieve that objective.

Now, back to why Trump’s proposed invasion will not turn Nigeria into the earlier-mentioned countries. Firstly, Nigeria is a democratic state. Whether it is a strong democracy is another discussion, but Nigeria is a democracy, evidenced by periodic elections that produce different leaders from the presidency down to the local government level.

In the case of Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan, they are not democracies. Even if they hold elections, they have produced the same candidates who are considered dictators and have held a strong grip on power for decades by making constitutional amendments that enable it. In International Relations, they are classified as pariah states, while the heads of state are considered rogue actors.

Think of Muammar Gaddafi, who ruled Libya for 42 years until his assassination by rebel forces in 2011 or Saddam Hussein, who served as president, vice president and prime minister of Iraq for a combined 35 years until his overthrow by American troops in 2003.

Certainly, that is not the case in Nigeria, where former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s attempt for a constitutional amendment to allow him to run for a third term after completing eight years of the presidency between 1999 and 2007 failed to gain the support of the National Assembly and the Nigerian citizens.

Another thing to note about Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan is that they were run by leaders who were at odds with the US. They have, from time to time, spoken against America’s authority and sided with America’s adversaries like Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. That is an invitation to war and a reason to override another country’s sovereignty because of America’s global interests.

In the case of Nigeria, it has never made adverse statements about the US or solely sided with its adversaries. Rather, it has been strong bilateral ties that have enabled both countries to benefit from each other, beyond natural resources, through cultural exchange.

Also in the previously mentioned countries, there have been rebel groups fighting against the dictators and the US and other Western allies have sided with the rebel factions. Such a scenario does not exist in Nigeria, as militant groups from Boko Haram, Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) and the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) have operated regionally and have never fought to overthrow the government at any level.

There is therefore no basis to believe that American forces will invade Nigeria for the control of its resources. The relationship between both countries is far too cordial for such a thing to play, especially concerning America’s security interests in the West African sub-region, where terrorist groups like Islamic State – West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Al-Qaeda are very active.

Trump’s up to something with Nigeria. We have seen how he has reconfigured the global economy by imposing tariffs on virtually every country that trades with the US.

In the end, it was his way of getting these countries to negotiate trade deals that would benefit the US. I see the same thing playing here, so do not be surprised if Nigeria strikes an agreement that strengthens security and trade relations with America.

Trump’s an attention grabber, often using unconventional methods to get what he wants. He is also fond of making threats against individuals and countries that do not align with his agenda or narratives.

He has in the past threatened to pull out from or defund international bodies like the North Atlanatic Treaty Organisation (NATO), United Nations, World Health Organsiaton (WHO), political individuals both within the Republican and Democratic Party like his former vice president Mike Pence, Liz Cheney, Nancy Pelosi and a host of others, with some of his actions going on to bite the inviduals like Cheney, who lost her seat in the House of Representatives.

It is left to Nigeria to show its strength as Africa’s biggest economy that is self-sufficient and can provide adequate security for its citizens regardless of religion or tribe, rather than be a country that is heavily dependent on another for its survival; otherwise, Trump’s not going to stop at his antics, and it will keep everyone on edge.